AI was supposed to kill engineering jobs, but new data suggests they’re the most resilient

Software engineering jobs are proving more resilient to automation than many forecasts predicted, according to new hiring data from venture firm SignalFire, even as technology companies cite artificial intelligence as a leading cause of layoffs [1]. Tech layoffs reached their highest single-month total in years this May, with AI cited as the most common reason, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas [1]. Software engineering, a field theoretically vulnerable to automation given the rapid adoption of AI coding tools, is showing unexpected durability in hiring patterns [1]. “The rationale given for lots of layoffs is consistently AI, and specifically they’ll say AI with respect to code; they’ll say one engineer could do the job of however many engineers in the past,” said Asher Bantock, SignalFire’s head of research. “What we’re seeing on the ground is a little inconsistent with that.” [1] SignalFire’s analysis, which tracked millions of employees across more than 80 million companies, examined hiring data as a real-time indicator of workforce trends [1]. While total hiring across large tech companies dropped 25% compared to 2019 levels, engineering roles saw a much smaller decline of just 11% [1]. Engineers comprised 55% of all new hires in 2025 across the 12 companies SignalFire classifies as “Tech Majors” — a group that includes Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe [1]. This marks a significant increase from 2019, when engineers represented only 46% of new recruits [1]. The demand was even more pronounced at early-stage startups, which collectively brought on 7% more engineers in 2025 than they did in 2019 [1]. Working in technical fields such as software engineering at these large firms is considered highly competitive [5]. If AI were truly substituting for engineering talent, Bantock argued, engineering hiring would be the first to fall amid the current tech hiring contraction [1]. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei had previously warned that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment as high as 20% within five years [1]. However, the company’s head of economics, Peter McCrory, stated in March that he had not yet observed significant AI-driven effects on the workforce. “There’s at least no larger material difference in unemployment rates” between workers who use AI for central tasks and those in jobs requiring physical interaction, McCrory said [1]. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang outright rejected the theory that AI will replace engineers during an interview at the Stanford Graduate School of Business in April. “Somebody said that AI is going to destroy all of the software engineering jobs,” Huang said, arguing the opposite is true. Now that all engineers at Nvidia are using agentic AI, “software engineers are busier than ever,” he added [1]. For now, the data suggests engineering has become an example of the Jevons paradox, where greater efficiency increases demand for a resource because the work expands to fill the new capacity. As Bantock noted of engineering talent: “They’re suddenly a lot more productive, and there’s endless work for them to do.” [1]