State Representation Matters in Deep Reinforcement Learning: Application to Energy Trading

13d ago · Global · primary source: export.arxiv.org

A new study finds that how market data is presented to a deep reinforcement learning agent is a decisive factor in energy trading performance, with combined feature sets significantly outperforming any single data type [1]. The research, posted to the preprint server arXiv on June 25, 2026, by Vincent Francois-Lavet, used a custom environment called HydroDam to simulate pumped-storage arbitrage [1]. The agent, a fixed Double DQN, was trained on Belgian day-ahead electricity prices from 2007 to 2011 and tested on data from 2012 to 2025, as well as across 39 other European market zones [1]. Reinforcement learning, a machine learning paradigm where an agent learns to maximize a reward signal through interaction with a dynamic environment, has been applied to complex games and scientific problems by labs such as Google DeepMind [3][4]. The study compared three families of market features: absolute price and calendar data, relative features comparing current prices to recent history, and short-horizon forecasts [1]. When the agent was provided only absolute price and calendar features, it achieved just 28.8% of a benchmark profit score on the primary test set and a median of 5.7% across the 39 cross-zone tests [1]. Single-feature-family states using only relative or only forecast data also failed to beat a simple rolling price-score heuristic in the cross-zone median evaluation [1]. Performance improved markedly when feature families were combined. An agent using absolute and relative features reached 49.9% on the test set and a 39.8% cross-zone median [1]. The strongest result came from combining all three families—absolute, relative, and forecast—which yielded a test-set score of 55.6% and a cross-zone median of 47.5% [1]. The paper concludes that state representation is not a minor preprocessing choice but a central part of policy design for storage-trading reinforcement learning, and that robust transfer across markets requires integrating price scale, recent relative context, and forecast information [1].

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Background sources we checked (7)
  • arxiv.org ↗ Energy trading decisions depend not only on current market prices, but also on expected future market conditions, and operational constraints. This makes the state representation given to a reinforcement learning agent an important design choice. We study this in HydroDam, a pump…
  • en.wikipedia.org ↗ In machine learning and optimal control, reinforcement learning (RL) is concerned with how an intelligent agent should take actions in a dynamic environment in order to maximize a reward signal. Reinforcement learning is one of the three basic machine learning paradigms, alongsid…
  • en.wikipedia.org ↗ Google DeepMind, trading as Google DeepMind or simply DeepMind, is a British-American artificial intelligence (AI) research laboratory which serves as a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. Founded in the UK in 2010, it was acquired by Google in 2014 and merged with Google AI's Google Bra…
  • en.wikipedia.org ↗ Google Brain was a deep learning artificial intelligence research team that served as the sole AI branch of Google before being incorporated under the newer umbrella of Google AI, a research division at Google dedicated to artificial intelligence. Formed in 2011, it combined open…
  • en.wikipedia.org ↗ This is a list of repositories used to store open science research outputs, which may include preprints, datasets, and journal publications with open content licenses.…
  • en.wikipedia.org ↗ The Alcubierre drive ([alkuˈβjere]) is a speculative warp drive idea according to which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, under the assumption that a configurable energy-density field lo…
  • en.wikipedia.org ↗ TRAPPIST-1 (also known as 2MASS J23062928−0502285 or SPECULOOS-1) is a red dwarf star with seven known planets. It lies in the constellation Aquarius approximately 40.66 light-years (12.47 pc) away from Earth. An ultra-cool dwarf, it has a surface temperature of about 2,566 K (2,…

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