Will California’s billionaire tax proposal make it to ballots?

A California ballot initiative to impose a one-time tax on billionaires faces an uncertain path to the November ballot, despite organizers gathering more than double the required signatures, as Governor Gavin Newsom works to broker a deal that would see the measure withdrawn before a June 25 certification deadline. The proposal, formally titled the One-Time Wealth Tax for State-Funded Health Care Programs Initiative, would levy a tax on California residents with wealth exceeding $1bn [2]. After back-room negotiations last week, proponents reduced the proposed rate from 5% to 2% of accumulated wealth [1]. The measure is sponsored by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) and is designed to fund healthcare, food assistance, and public education programs [2]. Tech billionaires have mobilized tens of millions of dollars to block the initiative. Former Google executives Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt have donated to Super Pacs opposing the measure, while crypto executive Chris Larsen launched an attack ad in May warning the tax "will backfire and hurt you" [1]. Other wealthy figures, including Google co-founder Larry Page, Meta co-founder Mark Zuckerberg, and Donald Trump's AI and crypto czar David Sacks, have already left California or are making plans to do so [1]. Governor Gavin Newsom, who is ineligible to seek re-election to a third term in 2026, has vowed to quash the proposal [1][4]. He has argued that state-level wealth taxes "drive a race to the bottom" and will chase billionaires out of California, stripping the state of revenue [1]. Newsom has reportedly been assembling a coalition to negotiate with the union to withdraw the proposal before the secretary of state's June 25 certification deadline [1]. David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University who studies California's ballot measure process, said the union had designed the measure as a negotiating tactic from the start. "From the get-go, SEIU-UHW has designed this measure as a 'gun-behind-the-door' to negotiate a better deal," McCuan said [1]. He added that rather than "go nuclear in a ballot measure battle that can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, the goal has been to threaten to go to war" [1]. The initiative is scheduled to appear on the November 3, 2026, ballot if it clears the certification process [2]. The 2026 election cycle in California is already crowded, with the gubernatorial race drawing 61 candidates to the primary ballot before Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advanced to the general election [4]. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who spent more than $215m on his own gubernatorial campaign, finished third in the June 2 primary and failed to advance [3]. The wealth tax fight unfolds against a broader backdrop of political and economic uncertainty in the United States. The year 2026 has seen two partial government shutdowns, including a 76-day closure that became the longest in U.S. history, centered on funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement [5]. The Trump administration has also pursued aggressive tariff policies and military actions abroad, including airstrikes against Iran [5][6].